JP Morgan says that although Macs and Apple Watches appear to be most supply-constrained, the overall impact of the shortage is still modest.
A JP Morgan analyst has provided insight into Apple lead times, or how long it takes a customer to receive his or her order after purchasing.
Although lead times don't always provide an accurate assessment of demand, they can provide insight into the balance between supply and demand. There is a global lead time for both Apple's Mac and iPad.
There has been a reduction in lead times for Apple's Mac to less than a month, and a moderated reduction in lead times for its iPad to 12 days. There is no change in the estimated delivery date for AirPods from the company.
Apple's iPhone, its most important hardware product, has remained stable at 4 days on average worldwide over the past few months.
Despite Apple's warnings, Chatterjee believes that global supply constraints will have a moderate impact on the June quarter due to the low lead times for Apple's handsets.
Due to supply issues, Apple previously warned investors of a potential revenue hit of $4 billion to $6 billion. There was a further increase in lead times for the Apple Watch in the U.S.
while they moderated for other project categories. Other product categories had higher estimated delivery dates than Apple's iPhone in Western Europe.
Both Apple Watch and iPhone lead times improved in Japan, but Apple's Mac declined. For the next 12 months, Chatterjee will continue to pay $200 to Apple.
The target price is based on a price-to-earnings multiple of 30x on $6.73 earnings estimates for 2023.
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