A NASA administrator expressed concerns over China's intentions in space, particularly the claim by China that the Moon belongs to them and it will be off-limits to other countries.

As he told a German newspaper in an interview that he spoke with, Nelson cautioned, “We must bear in mind that there is very real concern that China is now saying, 'it's ours, stay out'' China immediately condemned the claims as a “lie”.

NASA's administrator and Chinese officials are in an unusual spot at a time when both nations are actively working on moon missions - and China has been open about its lunar ambitions.

By 2026, China and Russia plan to reach the South Pole of the Moon. China was the first country to land a spacecraft on the far side of the Moon in 2019. By 2027, Chinese officials and government documents have said they plan to construct a permanent, crewed International Lunar Research Station.

In terms of taking over the Moon, there is a big difference between setting up a lunar base and doing so. Based on our knowledge of space security and China's space program, we believe that no country will be able to take over the Moon shortly, including China.

Aside from the fact that it is illegal, such an endeavor would also be technologically confounding - the costs of putting such a venture into action would be extremely high, and the potential benefits would be illusive.

It is against international space law for China to take over the Moon. Outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, is explicitly exempt from national appropriation using the claim of sovereignty, use, occupation.

A literal interpretation of the treaty indicates no country has the right to take possession of the Moon and declare it a part of its domestic interests and prerogatives. Legal scholars disagree on the meaning of 'appropriation', but a literal interpretation means that no country has the right to take possession of the Moon.

If China attempted this, it would be subject to international condemnation and possible retaliation. Outer space and celestial bodies are open to exploration and use by any state, even those that cannot claim ownership of the Moon.

A Chinese mission is not the only one scheduled to visit the Moon's South Pole shortly. The U.S.-led Artemis Accords are a group of 20 countries that have plans to return humans to the Moon by 2025, including launching the Gateway space station in November 2024 and establishing a research station on the lunar surface.

Even if no country can legally claim sovereignty over the Moon, it is possible that China, or any other country, would attempt to gradually establish de facto control over strategically important areas through a strategy known as “salami-slicing”.

Small, incremental actions add up to significant developments and increased control by taking small, incremental steps. Individually, these little steps may not warrant a strong response, but cumulatively, they create a significant impact.

The Moon has a surface area of nearly 14.6 million square miles, so any control over it would be temporary and localized. China has recently used this strategy in the South and East China Seas. In a more plausible scenario, China may endeavor to control specific areas of the moon that contain higher concentrations of water ice, such as lunar craters that are strategically valuable.

Humans would be able to access water on the Moon without having to ship it from Earth, and ice could be a source of oxygen and hydrogen, needed to fuel rockets. Any mission to or beyond the Moon requires water ice for its long-term survival and sustainability.

The United States launched 51 orbital missions in 2021, while China launched 55. China is investing heavily in space. A mega constellation of 12,992 satellites is planned by the Chinese state-owned StarNet space company, and the Tiangong space station is nearing completion.

It's expensive to travel to the Moon; it would be even more expensive if we were able to 'take over' the Moon. China's budget for space exploration is estimated to be $13 billion by 2020, far less than NASA's.

Compared to last year, the U.S. increased its space budget by 5.6% and China by 17.1% in 2020. While China is spending more money, it doesn't seem to be investing enough in the expensive, daring, and uncertain mission to 'take over' the Moon.

The acquisition of some part of the Moon by China would be risky, expensive, and highly provocative. By breaking international law, China could further damage its reputation, and it may invite retaliation. All this for uncertain payouts.